/a/, Tonegawa is offering you a chance to win 20 million yen.

Three cards are face down on the table. One Emperor and two Citizens. If you pick the Emperor you win.

You pick one card.

Tonegawa now has to flip over one citizen and offer you a choice to switch your choice to the other remaining card.

Do you switch?

Three cards are face down on the table. One Emperor and two Citizens. If you pick the Emperor you win.

You pick one card.

Tonegawa now has to flip over one citizen and offer you a choice to switch your choice to the other remaining card.

Do you switch?

Quoted By: >>10012280

Yes, I switch. If I switch I have a 2/3 chance of winning, and if I keep the one I chose I only have a 1/3 chance of winning.

Quoted By: >>10012280

No, one of the two cards is a Emperor, and you already picked one, so it's a 50/50 chance any. No point in switching.

Quoted By: >>10012355

Imagine that the set of Monty Hall's game show Let's Make a Deal has three closed doors. Behind one of these doors is a car; behind the other two are goats. The contestant does not know where the car is, but Monty Hall does.

The contestant picks a door and Monty opens one of the remaining doors, one he knows doesn't hide the car. If the contestant has already chosen the correct door, Monty is equally likely to open either of the two remaining doors.

The contestant picks a door and Monty opens one of the remaining doors, one he knows doesn't hide the car. If the contestant has already chosen the correct door, Monty is equally likely to open either of the two remaining doors.

Quoted By: >>10012318

>>10012233

No, >>10012146 is right. It seems counterintuitive but there is a real, mathematical reason for it. It's an old logic puzzle, I forget what it's actually called.

No, >>10012146 is right. It seems counterintuitive but there is a real, mathematical reason for it. It's an old logic puzzle, I forget what it's actually called.

Quoted By: >>10012355

We will assume that there is a winning door and that the two remaining doors, A and B, both have goats behind them. There are three options:

1. The contestant first chooses the door with the car behind it. She is then shown either door A or door B, which reveals a goat. If she changes her choice of doors, she loses. If she stays with her original choice, she wins.

2. The contestant first chooses door A. She is then shown door B, which has a goat behind it. If she switches to the remaining door, she wins the car. Otherwise, she loses.

3. The contestant first chooses door B. She is then is shown door A, which has a goat behind it. If she switches to the remaining door, she wins the car. Otherwise, she loses.

1. The contestant first chooses the door with the car behind it. She is then shown either door A or door B, which reveals a goat. If she changes her choice of doors, she loses. If she stays with her original choice, she wins.

2. The contestant first chooses door A. She is then shown door B, which has a goat behind it. If she switches to the remaining door, she wins the car. Otherwise, she loses.

3. The contestant first chooses door B. She is then is shown door A, which has a goat behind it. If she switches to the remaining door, she wins the car. Otherwise, she loses.

Quoted By: >>10012354

/a/, Tonegawa is offering you a chance to win 20 million yen.

100 cards are face down on the table. One Emperor and 99 Citizens. If you pick the Emperor you win.

You pick one card.

Tonegawa now has to flip over 98 citizens and offer you a choice to switch your choice to the other remaining card.

Do you switch?

100 cards are face down on the table. One Emperor and 99 Citizens. If you pick the Emperor you win.

You pick one card.

Tonegawa now has to flip over 98 citizens and offer you a choice to switch your choice to the other remaining card.

Do you switch?

Quoted By: >>10012435

>>10012325

What if there were 1,000 doors? You would have a 1/1,000 chance of picking the correct door. If Monty opens 998 doors, all of them with goats behind them, the door that you chose first will still have a 1/1,000 chance of being the one that conceals the car, but the other remaining door will have a 999/1,000 probability of being the door that is concealing the car. Here switching sounds like a pretty good idea.

What if there were 1,000 doors? You would have a 1/1,000 chance of picking the correct door. If Monty opens 998 doors, all of them with goats behind them, the door that you chose first will still have a 1/1,000 chance of being the one that conceals the car, but the other remaining door will have a 999/1,000 probability of being the door that is concealing the car. Here switching sounds like a pretty good idea.

Quoted By: >>10012384

>>10012283

>>10012265

Reminds me of that story about the lady and the tiger. I always hated that story.

The end is like getting Gainax'd but worse because instead of animating the story with a crappy budget they just dropped the project entirely and said to the viewers, "why don't YOU tell me what happened."

>>10012265

Reminds me of that story about the lady and the tiger. I always hated that story.

The end is like getting Gainax'd but worse because instead of animating the story with a crappy budget they just dropped the project entirely and said to the viewers, "why don't YOU tell me what happened."

Quoted By: >>10012569

Quoted By: >>10012731

Wouldn't switch. I know probability wise, it'd be best, but this is Tonegawa we're talking about.

He'll give you the chance to switch because HE KNOWS you already picked the Emperor in the beginning.

He'll give you the chance to switch because HE KNOWS you already picked the Emperor in the beginning.

Quoted By: >>10012896

Quoted By:

Quoted By:

Quoted By: >>10013220

Quoted By: >>10013431

>>10013220

Depends on you. If you believe in the purity of the Princess (read:Humanity)then the woman comes out. Of course this works the other way around.

Depends on you. If you believe in the purity of the Princess (read:Humanity)then the woman comes out. Of course this works the other way around.

Quoted By: >>10013463

>>10013393

either way she can't have him so wouldn't it be best to wish him happiness as well instead of letting him suffer?

either way she can't have him so wouldn't it be best to wish him happiness as well instead of letting him suffer?

Quoted By: